Uniting the Indian Opposition
The Indian political space is unique in terms of the dominance of political parties in the society. While the two biggest parties – the Bharatiya Janata Party (“BJP”) and the Indian National Congress (“INC”) – register their presence nearly throughout the country, they are not the sole contenders for state power. Different regional parties dominate the electoral space in several states, and their influence is limited to their individual states. In some states, regional parties are strong but not dominant, and they play a crucial role in government formation by ensuring that the dominant parties remain short of the majority without their support. This results in triangular and quadrangular contests on several seats, which, in the first-past-the-post system, necessarily helps candidates win seats despite remaining short of the majority mark by a significant margin. Over the last decade, the BJP has performed remarkably well in seats that witnessed multi-party contests as the anti-BJP vote gets split between several opposition candidates.
To counter this phenomenon, more than 35 parties have come together to form a big-tent united opposition bloc called the ‘Indian National Developmental Inclusive Alliance’ (“INDIA”) to jointly fight the BJP in the 2024 General Elections. They believe that if the opposition could field a single common candidate against every BJP candidate, they could potentially defeat the BJP or at least challenge its ambitious goal of winning a supermajority.
The strategy of uniting the opposition against an electorally strong and populist leader is not uncommon, both for India and globally. In the following paragraphs, I’ll discuss how this strategy has played out in the recent past and what lessons INDIA could learn from such a global experience.
United Opposition: Opportunities and Challenges
The strategy of fielding a common candidate and forming broad opposition alliances, at times with parties believing in conflicting ideologies, to defeat populist leaders has been commonly adopted in multi-party democracies. Evidence of this abounds from Hungary, Türkiye, Israel, Bulgaria, Slovenia, Brazil, the Gambia, and the Czech Republic in the recent past (see here and here). While this strategy has been proven successful for the opposition in many of these states, the unification of the opposition cannot be termed the magic wand against populism, as the cases of Hungary and Türkiye show. Defeating leaders while they remain popular among the masses requires more than mere unification of the opposition for the sake of the votes. As Lührmann puts it, it would demand ‘a unified and creative opposition’ to effectively dethrone the populists from power.
Some of the critical elements that the united opposition needs to inculcate in their campaign and operations are as follows. The united front must be broad enough to counter any chances of vote-splitting, and it must enter the electoral battle with a sense of genuineness and promise that it will offer a sustainable government to the people once elected to power. It would be extremely difficult for them to succeed electorally if their campaign revolves solely around defeating the incumbents. An alternative agenda that is inclusive in its approach and takes stock of the fundamental needs of the citizenry needs to be developed. An alternative vision of governance and a substantive manifesto of realistically achievable possibilities need to be presented. If the people perceive the united front merely as the opposition coming together against a common enemy rather than as a representation of an alternative developmental vision, the idea of a united front could instead turn into a weapon in the hands of the populists to further their narrative about institutional attempts to deny power to the common people.
Along with this, it needs to be ensured that the common minimum program developed by the united opposition does not become toothless owing to the accommodation of diverse and, at times, conflicting ideologies. One of the fundamental causes for the rise of anti-democratic populist leaders is the declining trust of the people in state capabilities; a non-substantial and non-promising common minimum program would only feed the original problem.
While winning an election against a populist leader/party may sound daunting, the real test for the united opposition comes once they are voted into power. A government constituted of leaders holding diverse viewpoints will need to consistently come out with a common voice and, thus, enter compromises and hard bargains on a regular basis for the sustenance of the government. The cost of the failure to run the government effectively without substantial infighting is severely high – the gains made may disappear quickly, and the populist may again rise to power.
United Opposition in the 2024 Indian General Election
Numerically speaking, the idea of a unified opposition to counter the BJP is realistic and feasible in India. If the dominant regional parties and non-BJP national parties come together and field common candidates strategically, the opposition will perform substantially better than it did in the last two elections. As the electoral process is still underway, it would be too soon to comment on the performance of the INDIA bloc. However, important insights for comparative analysis can be drawn by studying the bloc’s approach to contesting the 2024 elections.
INC, having its presence across India and being one of the biggest national parties in the INDIA bloc, has assumed a central position in the formation and operation of the bloc. As a significant portion of the TV media seems to have shifted right, INC has made significant strides in voter outreach by resorting to both traditional and new-age means. Over the last year, it undertook two nationwide marches – the Bharat Jodo Yatra (Unite India March) and the Bharat Jodo Nyay Yatra (Unite India Justice March) and has been collaborating with social media influencers with an aim to re-establish its connection with the people, target the first-time voters and the youths, and take its ideology among the masses.
An analysis of the speeches delivered by its leaders would show that the INDIA bloc has adopted an approach similar to İmamoğlu’s ‘Radical Love’ campaign. Rahul Gandhi, the ex-president of INC, could be regularly seen using the phrase ‘hum nafrat kai bazaar mein mohabaat ki dukaan kholna chahte hai’ (we wish to spread love amidst the hatred being spread in the society) and focusing on the ideological battle being fought in India. There is a constant push and emphasis on the ideas of justice, love, and cordial fraternity. This is also visible in the policy proposals released by the INC, which would potentially form part of the INDIA bloc’s official manifesto. If voted to power, the INC has promised to deliver ‘5 nyay’ (five types of justice) by way of 25 guarantees. These nyay guarantees aim to address the needs of the five most vulnerable sections of society: youths, women, workers, farmers, and marginalized sections.
Moreover, in nearly every political rally and voter outreach program, its leaders have been delivering provocative and educative speeches aiming to explain the importance of democracy and the factum of democratic decay and institutional capture in India, share the ideas underlining the Indian constitution and why they matter for the Indian society, and awaken the masses to fight for the protection of its constitutional identity. Apart from mass gatherings, opposition leaders have been regularly organizing small group conversations with students, laborers, farmers, gig workers, etc., to hear and understand the needs, complaints, and perspectives of every section of society and, at the same time, share with them their ideas and ideologies as an alternative to that of the BJP’s. Such discussions are recorded and shared over social media to capture a wider audience.
Nevertheless, several problems persist in the approach and politics of the INDIA bloc. Being a big-tent electoral coalition composed of diverse parties that have been arch-rivals for years, it is difficult for the bloc to generate confidence among the people that it could produce a stable government. Regular occasions of infighting are captured, a sense that the purpose of the bloc is merely to oust Modi lingers, and reaching a mutual seat-sharing arrangement has proven to be a major tussle. A few important regional parties have even left the bloc to either fight the election independently or support the BJP. INDIA hasn’t released its common minimum program yet, and its current electoral rallies revolve around the atrocities of the Modi government and the policy measures that its government will adopt to pacify some of the concerns of the farmers, youth, women, and marginalized sections that have emerged during the Modi regime. A comprehensive independent alternative vision of development and growth has not yet been concretely launched, if not totally absent. On the contrary, individual opposition parties have released their own manifestos, which both align and contradict other parties of the bloc on several prominent issues.
Concluding Remarks
The 2024 elections are crucial. The health of India’s democracy is deteriorating, and a repeat of the BJP government for another term brings the possibility of substantial changes to the constitutional text. The emergence of a united opposition coalition is an important development in this regard; whether it will be successful and to what extent it will manage to impact the BJP’s electoral performance could be analyzed only once the elections are over. Nevertheless, we must closely study the approaches and strategies that INDIA adopts. It promises to be a critical case study for the scholars of democracy and populism.