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Giovanni Capoccia

Giovanni Capoccia is Professor of Comparative Politics at the University of Oxford. His work focuses on strategies to counter illiberalism in liberal democracies.
POSTS BY Giovanni Capoccia
08 July 2024

The French Fifth Republic Enters Uncharted Waters

After yesterday's elections, the French Fifth Republic steps into uncharted waters. In the short term, France’s role at the heart of EU integration and as a key supporter of Ukraine remains steadfast. This stability is impressive, given most predictions. However, this new phase of French politics will be fragmented and fluid, demanding a recalibration to find a stable equilibrium while countering the far right. French moderate parties face a tough road ahead. Their success or failure will not only shape France’s future but also reverberate beyond its borders. Continue reading >>
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02 July 2024

France’s Legislative Elections and the Uncertain Path to 2027

As most expected, Marine Le Pen’s Rassemblement National (RN) was the clear winner of the first round of the snap legislative elections in France, unexpectedly called by President Macron three weeks ago. Le Pen’s party, allied with a rump Les Républicains, led by Eric Ciotti, obtained 33.1% of the votes. A coalition including moderate and radical left parties, the Nouveau Front Populaire (NFP), came second with 28.1%, while the centrist parties supporting Gabriel Attal’s government received 21.3%. The mainstream right Républicains who refused to ally with the RN stopped at 6.6%. The RN confirmed its strong showing at last month’s European elections and more than doubled its votes in comparison to the last legislative elections of April 2022. Yet, an RN-led government is not a foregone conclusion. Continue reading >>
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10 June 2024

A High-Stakes Game

So it has happened: Marine Le Pen’s Rassemblement National (RN) received more than twice the votes of Macron’s Renaissance list in the European elections (31.4% vs. 14.6%). Following the results, Macron announced to dissolve parliament and call an early election. Judging by the immediate reactions on social media, Macron’s announcement shocked several commentators and the public. Yet, from the perspective of the 2027 presidential elections, the reasoning may not be as reckless as it seems. Macron’s calculation is based on the consideration that three more years of the current situation would make a Le Pen presidency highly likely in 2027. Continue reading >>
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