The Enemy Within

Most in the West today agree that we were abysmally naive in reading Putin when he annexed Crimea in 2014. Only when he entered a full-scale war in Ukraine in 2022 did a soul-searching and Zeitenwende set in in most Western capitals. However, naivety persists when it comes to understanding the scope of the hybrid war that Russia is currently waging against our societies, which includes the role played by the Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán. European diplomats, politicians and commentators continue to underestimate the security risk that Orbán poses as Putin’s willing puppet. By merely focusing on formal voting and decision-making procedures when it comes to getting all Member States on board to sanction Russia and help Ukraine, they overlook how the Hungarian leader is causing serious long-lasting damage through his drama, blackmail, posing and cozying up with (other) autocratic leaders. Some Central and Eastern European countries have understood that by taking over the rotating Council Presidency of the European Union on July 1^st  Orbán can take his disinformation campaign even further. By contrast, Western diplomats and politicians are right now sleepwalking into what will likely be a disastrous Hungarian EU Presidency, not only for the Union itself but also for Ukraine.

An Autocratic Trio

“Ukraine will not get a penny if I am re-elected”. This was the message from Donald Trump passed on by Viktor Orbán to a stunned public on March 10th after visiting the presidential candidate in his Florida home, Mar-a-Lago. The visit was surreal in itself: a European leader who has himself (reluctantly) voted for sanctions against Russia on several occasions, but who also uses every opportunity to function as Putin’s mouthpiece visited Trump, not Biden.

On the same occasion, Trump described Orbán as follows: “No one is better, smarter or a better leader than Viktor Orbán. He’s great, he’s an uncontroversial figure because he says ‘This is the way it’s going to be’ and that’s the way it is. Right? [….] he is a great leader. In Europe and around the world, people respect him.”

Even though it wasn’t long ago Trump named Orbán ‘the President of Turkey’, no one doubts Orbán’s popularity among Trump’s supporters. This was further enhanced when former Fox News host Tucker Carlson broadcasted live from Budapest and praised the Orbán autocracy – just months before he also interviewed Putin in the Kremlin.

The Hungarian leader’s vivid pro-Russian social media postings are not random provocations. They are deliberate, intentional, and part of his campaign against his own allies. By choosing to be photographed with the American presidential candidate in Mar-al-Lago or with Lavrov and Putin himself, Orbán and his top ministers contribute to sowing doubt about whether the European Union really can be counted on by the Ukrainians and whether we are willing to fight for our liberal values.

Orbán’s self-adopted role as a toxic messenger boy between Putin and the radicalized part of the Republican Party is not new. Nevertheless, Europe and NATO have so far stood idly by while their colleague Orbán shuttles between the Kremlin, Beijing and the Trump-quarters scoffing at the free world that guarantees both his country’s protection and economic progress. They have  already forgotten the pictures of the Hungarian foreign minister Szijjarto at a cheerful dinner party with his Russian counterpart Sergey Lavrov in Turkey on the very eve of Russian opposition leader Alexeyi Navalji’s funeral. Yet, as US Ambassador to Hungary, David Pressmann, rightly points out, Orban’s behavior should raise real concerns about whether it is “still safe to share classified intelligence with a man who consorts with enemies of the West and directly accuses the US of starting a war against Russia’.

Nevertheless, EU and NATO diplomats and politicians keep focusing on external enemies only and on the formal rules of the game. When talking about disinformation it is mainly Russia’s (or China’s) direct campaigns that are in focus, not the damage done by internal adversaries. However, in the current political situation where the line between truth and fiction, right and wrong, friend and foe is increasingly blurred, Orbán’s repeated cozying up with Russia friendly politicians is part and parcel of Putin’s hybrid war.

Orbán’s Fake Democracy

Since Orbán came to power in Hungary in 2010, the world has primarily focused on how he and his Fidezs party has destroyed and corrupted the rule of law and democracy. Hungary has been categorized as the fastest autocratizing country ever recorded by V-Dem Institute, which measures the state of democracy in the World. In the most recent report (March 2024), Hungary does not even qualify as an ‘electoral democracy’, where a few democratic institutions are still intact. Instead, V-dem characterizes Hungary as a so-called ‘electoral autocracy’, which means that elections are held, but rigged and neither free nor fair.

There is also little media freedom and the courts and the economy are controlled by a network of oligarchs. Civil liberties, especially those of LGBTIA+ groups and women are severely constrained alongside a crackdown on immigrants (or other ‘enemies’), designed to create a continuous sense of emergency and danger. The latest addition to Orbán’s authoritarian playbook is his ‘sovereignty protection law,’ which appears to be inspired by a law Putin adopted before the invasion of Ukraine to suppress dissenters. The Sovereignty Act permits the state to monitor citizens and prevent ‘foreign donors’ (even from the EU) from financially supporting Orbán’s opponents, all while Russian and Chinese sponsors continue to inject billions of dollars into the pro-government part of the economy.

It also created a so-called ‘Sovereignty Protection Office.‘ Arguably the most intrusive intelligence weapon since communism, it can investigate citizens for ‘undermining the sovereignty of the state.’ A conviction can lead to up to three years in prison. The SPO is also empowered to round up and crack down on opposition parties, journalists and NGOs for ‘hostile activities,’ with no judicial or other form of oversight. Given that these groups are nowadays entirely dependent on outside donors, the new law and agency will render their continued existence exceedingly precarious.

In February 2024, the EU filed a lawsuit against Hungary for threatening the privacy of ordinary citizens and suppressing civil society with the new bill. Yet, this happened at the same time as the Commission released billions of frozen funds to get Orbán to vote for an aid package for Ukraine. It is now again for the European Court of Justice to do the job that EU politicians were far too timid to undertake themselves.

The Disinformation War

That Hungary represents Russian interests and propagates Russian narratives within the EU is already well documented. Orbán is traveling with the same Russian story that we recently heard from the Pope, and which is also widespread in large parts of the German political left: If Ukraine just agreed to Russia’s territorial demands, peace would come quickly – and the pre-war European order could be restored in a flash. To his own population, Orbán therefore constantly portrays himself as the ‘peacemaker,’ all while blaming the EU for Hungary’s problems. For example, Hungary’s inflation which at 17% is the highest in the EU is not caused by the Russian invasion but by Brussels’ decision to sanction Russia.

What is more, while punishing NGOs, journalists and opposition parties for ‘outside influence,’ Orbán’s government is itself actively trying to influence public opinion in other Member States. Recent reporting proved that his government was behind YouTube videos warning against immigrants ahead of recent parliamentary elections in Slovakia and Poland and local elections in Germany and Italy. It allegedly also contributed to Fico’s electoral victory in Slovakia.

Given that Hungarian media spews out pro-Russian propaganda, it is unsurprising that Hungary is the country in Europe where the largest share of the population believes that Ukraine itself (together with the West) is to blame for Russia’s invasion. Moreover, while other EU countries have cut Russian diplomats out of fear of espionage, Orbán has allowed a sharp increase in the number of Russian diplomats in Budapest from 46 to 56 in the last two years and warmly welcomed the Russian investment bank IIB, while all other EU countries have dropped any dealings with the bank, characterizing it as a pure spy nest. Finally, while the rest of Europe reduced its gas-dependency of Russia from 45 to 15%, the Hungarian dependence on Russian gas has only increased over the past years.

Western Diplomats Fight the Old Wars – Not the New

Nonetheless, Western politicians and diplomats maintain that as long as Orbán keeps voting for sanctions, aid packages and EU enlargement, one can safely ignore his disinformation campaigns and courting of Putin and Trump. This shows a complete misunderstanding of the new type of war we are fighting. Take, for example, this statement from an anonymous French diplomat:

“Of course, it’s not a good signal that Orbán is sending by exchanging handshakes with Putin, but if we take a step back and look at what the EU and Hungary have decided together in relation to the war in Ukraine, then [the decisions] were ultimately made jointly.”

US Ambassador David Pressmann, by contrast, was more austere: “Hungary joined NATO not only because of its heroic history but because it shares our values.” But do they still share these values? In an age of disinformation, a country should not only be judged by its physical actions but also by its discursive deeds. Indeed, for this reason several Central and Eastern European countries have begun to question whether we in the EU and NATO should continue to share sensitive information with Hungary. According to an anonymous Eastern European diplomatic source:

“If I were Ukraine, I would not feel comfortable sharing security information and military plans as long as he [Orban] is present in the room”. No one knows whether the intelligence on the war shared among the heads of state goes directly to the Kremlin via Orbán.”

Estonian Prime Minister Kaja Kallas equally called Orbán’s meeting with Putin in China a few months ago “very, very unpleasant” and Lithuanian Foreign Minister Gabrielius Landsbergis – known as a hawk when it comes to Russia also suggested that the Union should start asking how we deal with enemies from within.

Anton Hofreiter, chairman of the German Green Party’s European Affairs Committee took it even further when the EU considered releasing 50 trillion euros to Hungary in December to secure the country’s support for the next economic aid package for Ukraine. How could the Union even consider rewarding a member state which fights his own? This is so especially when taking Hungary’s voting rights using art. 7 – finally – might have been a workable alternative now that Poland is back in the democratic fold.

Taking Over the EU Presidency

The EU leaders’ continued inaction illustrates an emerging divide between what one could call ‘new’ and ‘old’ Europe. The newer member states know that Russia’s hybrid warfare is very different from Europe’s old conventional wars, having been under Russia’s spell more recently. As such, even Poland’s return as a trusted democratic player may do little to alleviate the havoc Orbán can wreak.

On July 1, Hungary will take over the rotating EU presidency and few doubt that Orbán will do everything to exploit it. Over a year ago, the Dutch Meijer Committee, a group of renowned jurists, issued a report warning against giving Orbán the usual powers of an EU presidency. The European Parliament also sounded the alarm. Yet the European parliamentary elections seem to have stopped all courage and attempts to prevent a catastrophe. The analysis among the Heads of state and government seems to be that any action will backfire.

Yet the danger is clear. As president of the Council, Orbán will not only be able to use the legitimacy that comes with this role, but he will also have unique access to even more crucial Ukraine-related security information than today. And four months into his term, his best buddy, Trump, could regain the White House.

What we should ask ourselves is thus what will happen to Ukraine if a new autocratic trio of Trump, Orbán and Putin will ‘run the show’ after November?

So far however, old Europe is still so fast asleep that this question isn’t even being posed.

This column is written in Professor Wind’s own capacity and first appeared in a more extensive version in Danish in the magazine Ræson.