14 July 2025
Turkey’s Gerontocratic Constitutional Moment
In less than a year, Turkish politics has undergone a profound realignment. It began in October 2024 with a remarkable speech by Devlet Bahçeli, leader of the far-right Nationalist Movement Party (MHP) and President Erdoğan’s chief coalition partner. In one of the most cryptic U-turns of his career, Bahçeli—long a hardliner on the Kurdish question—proposed reopening the long-frozen peace process with the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK), the separatist armed group that has waged a decades-long insurgency against the Turkish state. In short, the tectonic plates of Turkish politics are shifting, and at the center of this transition stands a cast of aging men, each well past seventy. Continue reading >>
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17 April 2025
The Opposition Erdoğan Can Tolerate
President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan is remaking Turkey’s opposition – not by defeating it outright, but by replacing it. His latest strategy appears to sideline the secular Republican People’s Party (CHP) and elevate the pro-Kurdish Peoples’ Equality and Democracy Party (DEM) as a more fragmented, controllable rival. This calculated manoeuvre could fracture the anti-Erdoğan bloc ahead of the 2028 elections while projecting an image of democratic pluralism. Continue reading >>
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02 April 2025
Judicial Harassment in Turkey
The arrest of the opposition’s presidential frontrunner Ekrem İmamoğlu marks a historic turning point for Turkey. It is emblematic of Turkey’s shift from "competitive authoritarianism" towards "full authoritarianism" or a weak form of fascism, demanding immediate and preventive intervention by the European Court of Human Rights. Most importantly, retrospective assessments of the recent events in Turkey are insufficient at this point. It is crucial to invoke Article 18 and the “chilling effect” doctrine before irreparable political damage occurs. Continue reading >>
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28 March 2025
The Arrest of Istanbul’s Mayor is Textbook Lawfare
On March 19, 2025, police arrested Istanbul Mayor Ekrem İmamoğlu on corruption and terrorism charges. Four days later, on March 23, a judge ordered him to prison pending trial. İmamoğlu is not only the mayor of Istanbul, a position he has held by repeatedly defeating Erdoğan-backed candidates, but also widely regarded as the opposition’s most prominent and promising candidate to challenge Erdoğan in a presidential election. That is why the lawfare waged against him, culminating in his pre-trial detention, is broadly viewed as an attempt by the ruling party to eliminate Turkey’s rising opposition and further consolidate its one-party rule. Continue reading >>
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06 April 2024
Why Party Bans Often Don’t Work
In July 2008, in an intensely debated and enormously consequential case, Turkey’s Constitutional Court weighed whether to close the ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP) and ban its 71 leading members, including then-Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdoğan. Six of the eleven justices voted in favor – falling just one vote short of the super-majority required to dissolve the AKP and bar its leaders from politics for five years. More than 15 years after the AKP closure case, Turkey has experienced significant democratic backsliding, and Erdoğan has secured a third term as president, extending his tenure in office into 2028. Although the tools of “militant democracy” may be useful, the Turkish case suggests that targeted legal interventions, rather than sweeping party bans, may be more effective at safeguarding democracy. Continue reading >>
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13 March 2024
What is Living and What is Dead in the Turkish Parliament?
On January 30th, 2024, the Turkish Parliament officially revoked the mandate of Can Atalay, an opposition MP representing the earthquake-affected city of Hatay. Atalay's incident, from its inception to the recent parliamentary drama, not only exposes the diminished authority of the Constitutional Court but also exemplifies the tacit cooperation among the regime's loyal officers—judges, MPs, or civil servants. In this subtle network, the Parliament occupies a peculiar place with its distinct symbolism, serving as a fig leaf for authoritarian politics. Continue reading >>
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02 June 2023
Boiling the Frog
In the wake of Turkey's recent presidential elections, previous blogposts objected to characterizing authoritarian regimes such as Turkey, Hungary and India as ‘competitive’ solely by virtue of regular elections, which are formally free but fundamentally unfair. However, this blogpost argues that the prior ones missed the main problem in Turkey: The playing field in Turkey is not only “massively tilted in favor of Erdogan” now; it has always been tilted in favor of the majority – long before Erdoğan. This blogpost discusses the slow death of Turkish electoral competitiveness. First, I describe the politico-legal context that enabled Erdogan’s rise. Second, I contrast the developments in Turkey regarding election competitiveness to European legal standards and strikingly late political demands. Continue reading >>
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17 February 2023
Shutting Down the Internet to Shut Down Criticism
In the aftermath of the devastating earthquakes which hit southwestern Turkey, internet connectivity had enabled civil society to provide additional on- and off-site assistance. However, the use of social media is not seen as innocent by Turkish authorities. Immediately after the earthquakes, authorities started to use legal instruments to silence the use of social media platforms even at the expense of utilizing its benefits during catastrophic times. Continue reading >>
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24 January 2023
The Sultan’s Last Dance
Long-time ruler Recep Tayyip Erdoğan recently declared that he would run for president for the last time in the upcoming elections in 2023, indicating the end of his political career that stretched over four decades. This may sound like a strategic move to mobilize voters but it is actually not possible for him to run again according to the current constitution. The possibility for a renewed or "last" run for office does not lie in the hands of Erdoğan alone. Continue reading >>
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05 January 2023
Interfering with Free Speech and the Fate of Turkey
On 21 April 1998, the then mayor of İstanbul, Recep Tayyip Erdoğan was sentenced to one year (subsequently reduced to ten months) in prison and a hefty fine by the State Security Court of Diyarbakır for “incitement to hatred and hostility on grounds of religious discrimination”. His criminal act was that of reading two provocative verses from the poem “Divine Army” by Cevat Örnek (“the minarets are bayonets, the domes are helmets / mosques are our barracks, the faithful our soldiers”) during a rally of the Islamist Welfare Party (of “Strasbourg fame”) in 1997. Twenty-five years after the aforementioned rally, Turkey experienced a free speech case involving another conservative-leaning political figure on the rise: on 14 December 2022, İstanbul’s mayor Ekrem İmamoğlu was sentenced by İstanbul’s 7th Criminal Court of First Instance to a term of imprisonment of two years, seven months and fifteen days for criminal defamation. Continue reading >>
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