Keir Starmer’s resignation only two years after Labour’s landslide victory is more than a story about the failures of Labour or Starmer himself. It says something larger about the increasingly difficult conditions under which governments in what were once called “advanced liberal democracies” operate today. Across Europe and beyond, political fragmentation, electoral volatility and the rise of populist challenger parties have made governing considerably harder. Even majoritarian political institutions such as those of the UK, which favour single-party majorities and executive stability, can no longer protect incumbents from shifts in public mood as effectively as they once did.

When Starmer entered Downing Street in July 2024, many hoped Britain would return to a more stable political era. After a decade marked by Brexit, constitutional turmoil, revolving-door prime ministers and deep political polarization, Labour’s victory appeared to promise a restoration of moderation and normality. Indeed, this is how Starmer himself described it after the election. Barely two years later, he resigned.

The immediate explanations are familiar. His government suffered from a series of political blunders, damaging controversies and unpopular policy reversals. Labour performed badly in the local and devolved elections of May 2026, and many pointed to Starmer’s leadership shortcomings, particularly his weak communication skills and inability to establish an emotional connection with voters. All these factors certainly played a role. But they are only part of the story.

The Starmer Government

Starmer’s caution and incrementalism led to a few damaging policy U-turns, notably on digital identity cards, inheritance taxation for farmers, and winter fuel payments, which reinforced the image of a government reacting to events rather than shaping them. Additional political blunders further eroded his political capital. The controversy surrounding gifts and donations reinforced perceptions of a political class detached from ordinary voters. The appointment of Peter Mandelson as ambassador to the United States led to political embarrassment once Mandelson’s ties with disgraced billionaire Jeffrey Epstein were made public.

At the same time, by most measures, especially when compared with some of his recent predecessors, Starmer’s premiership was not an obvious failure, which makes the rapidity of his downfall quite striking. Labour entered office with a large parliamentary majority and moved relatively quickly to implement key parts of its programme. This was notable given the uneven support for Starmer within the parliamentary party (Jeffery et al. 2024) and the precarious electoral position of many Labour MPs. The government strengthened workers’ rights through reforms of sick pay, parental leave and zero-hours contracts. It introduced stronger protections for tenants, advanced its green energy agenda and made progress in reducing NHS waiting lists. After years of political turbulence, it also restored a degree of credibility to Britain’s international position at a moment of considerable geopolitical uncertainty.

The Local Elections of May 2026

The immediate trigger of Starmer’s fall was Labour’s negative performance in the local elections of May 2026. Across 136 English councils, the party lost nearly 1,500 councillors. At the same time, the radical-right populist party Reform UK, Nigel Farage’s latest political vehicle after UKIP and the Brexit Party, gained 1,452 councillors, almost exactly matching Labour’s losses. The Greens also performed strongly, while the Conservatives continued their decline. The picture was hardly better for Labour in the devolved elections in Scotland and Wales. In Scotland, Labour recorded its worst result (17 seats, down five from its previous lowest point in 2021) since the creation of the devolved parliament. In Wales, the party lost control of the Senedd for the first time since devolution, collapsing from 30 to only nine seats despite the expansion of the regional Assembly from 60 to 96 seats.

The political fallout of the defeat was immediate. Starmer’s leadership came increasingly under attack. A week after the vote, four junior ministers resigned, followed two days later by Wes Streeting, Health Minister and Labour leadership hopeful. On the same day, Labour MP Josh Simons resigned his seat in Makerfield to allow Greater Manchester Mayor Andy Burnham to contest the by-election with a view of challenging Starmer’s leadership. Under Labour’s rules, candidates for the party’s leadership must be sitting MPs. Burnham’s candidacy acquired additional significance because only a few months earlier Starmer had blocked his return to Parliament through another by-election, a move widely interpreted as an attempt to prevent a future leadership challenge.

Burnham entered Parliament with a landslide victory, winning 54.8% of the vote, almost 10% more than Labour had obtained in 2024. Having campaigned explicitly as a future leadership challenger, he emerged from the by-election with considerable political momentum. Four days later, Starmer resigned. Barring highly unlikely developments, Burnham is likely to become Prime Minister within weeks.

A Volatile and Fragmented Political Landscape

And yet – even though the extent of Labour’s defeat in the local elections was significant, it would not necessarily have led to the PM’s resignation had British politics not changed profoundly over the last decade. Historically, especially in “majoritarian” democracies such as the UK, poor local-election results might prompt at most a limited cabinet reshuffle or some policy adjustments. They would not normally force a prime minister to resign. The fact that it does now is more due to the radically changed environment of British politics over the past decade than to the failures of Starmer or his government.

The long period during which Labour and the Conservatives dominated electoral competition has gradually given way to a more fragmented and volatile political landscape. Smaller parties command increasingly significant shares of the vote. Electoral loyalties are weaker than they once were. The 2024 election accelerated these trends.

These developments are not unique to Britain. Similar patterns can be observed across many liberal democracies around the world. Traditional centre-left and centre-right parties have experienced long-term decline. A higher number of voters switch parties across elections. Populist political entrepreneurs have successfully mobilized voters dissatisfied with established political actors. Politics has become simultaneously more fragmented and more polarized.

Such environments make governing considerably more difficult. Electoral victories become less durable because the coalitions that produce them are less stable. Local victories of once-excluded parties become an alarm bell that can no longer be ignored or accommodated with marginal adjustments. Governments face growing pressure to respond immediately to changing public moods. Political setbacks that might once have been absorbed become potential existential threats.

The Rise of Reform UK

The marked rise in the polls of Reform UK – a party that, if elected to power, would likely emulate the policies and the governing style of US President Donald Trump – strengthens the sense of urgency in responding to electoral mood swings. Since the 2024 general election, Reform has evolved from a challenger party into one of the central actors in British politics. By mid-2026, it was leading several national polls and had established itself as the primary vehicle for anti-establishment discontent.

Like many centre-left parties across liberal democracies, Labour has haemorrhaged voters over the past two decades. It has lost support both to its right and to its left. The aftermath of the Brexit vote enabled the Conservatives to make significant inroads into the former Labour strongholds of northern England, in particular in the 2019 elections. Labour regained many of these seats in 2024, but typically only thanks to the split of the right-wing vote between Reform and the Conservatives (Jennings et al. 2024). Starmer sought to appeal to these voters by tightening immigration and asylum policies under Home Secretary Shabana Mahmood, and by limiting rapprochement with the EU, even though many argued that Britain’s sluggish growth called for a bolder European strategy. This was, however, insufficient to prevent Reform’s victories in 2026.

As many analysts have emphasized, the more immediate electoral threat to Labour now comes from the opposite direction, namely from the Liberal Democrats and most of all the rapidly ascending Green party. In the 2026 local elections, Labour’s losses to the Greens have been estimated at about 22%, while those to Reform to be about a quarter of that figure. Recent research suggests that economic insecurity is the main driver of Labour defections across the political spectrum, while concerns about immigration play a particularly important role among voters moving (now in smaller amounts) towards Reform. Labour thus faces pressure, even though of different intensity, from both directions simultaneously. If Reform, as the polls suggest, replaces the Conservatives as the most viable contender on the right side of the political spectrum, many northern English Labour seats will be at serious risk.

Of course, this is not only a British problem. In different forms, it is present in nearly all liberal democracies today and significantly restricts the room for manoeuvre of centrist and centre-left governments alike. Attempts to respond to concerns about immigration and cultural change risk alienating progressive voters. Moves designed to satisfy progressive constituencies risk strengthening radical-right challengers.

A Tale of Our Times

These are structural characteristics of British politics today and there is no guarantee that Burnham, whatever his political skills, will be able to carve a way to victory for Labour in the next general elections. How to promote the growth policies that would be necessary to reduce economic insecurity and solidify Labour’s vote, without the prospect of stability and with the imperative of delivering in the short term? How to improve the country’s economic prospects if seriously mending the relationship with the EU remains a taboo for a large minority of the UK electorate? Whether any political leader could easily resolve these problems remains unclear.

Starmer represents a type of politician that post-war European liberal democracies have traditionally produced and often rewarded: serious, pragmatic, institutionally minded and committed to incremental reform. He is not a charismatic populist. His appeal rested largely on competence and moderation. What makes his fall politically significant is not that these qualities failed to generate enthusiasm. That has often been true. It is that they increasingly appear insufficient to sustain political authority.

Political polarization, electoral fragmentation, permanent campaigning, social media dynamics and declining trust in institutions have all made political support more volatile and less durable—in Britain like elsewhere.

Starmer’s resignation does not necessarily mean that moderation is impossible or that liberal democracy is doomed. But it does illustrate how difficult governing has become for moderate political leaders. His fall is a reminder of the increasingly demanding environment in which contemporary democracies must operate – and of the challenges that await not only Starmer’s successors, but governments across the democratic world.