06 September 2025
Déjà Vu
At the resumption of political activity after the summer, France’s Prime Minister François Bayrou unexpectedly announced that he would use his constitutional prerogative to ask for a parliamentary vote of confidence on September 8. The main decision now facing the French president – who has repeatedly declared that he will not leave office early – is whether to attempt to construct a new governing formula within the current parliament or to call new elections just fourteen months after the last dissolution. Neither option is attractive, and both would effectively reset French politics to 2024. Continue reading >>
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02 July 2024
France’s Legislative Elections and the Uncertain Path to 2027
As most expected, Marine Le Pen’s Rassemblement National (RN) was the clear winner of the first round of the snap legislative elections in France, unexpectedly called by President Macron three weeks ago. Le Pen’s party, allied with a rump Les Républicains, led by Eric Ciotti, obtained 33.1% of the votes. A coalition including moderate and radical left parties, the Nouveau Front Populaire (NFP), came second with 28.1%, while the centrist parties supporting Gabriel Attal’s government received 21.3%. The mainstream right Républicains who refused to ally with the RN stopped at 6.6%. The RN confirmed its strong showing at last month’s European elections and more than doubled its votes in comparison to the last legislative elections of April 2022. Yet, an RN-led government is not a foregone conclusion. Continue reading >>
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10 June 2024