What will happen if the Dutch vote ‘No’ in the Referendum on the EU-Ukraine Association Agreement?
On 6 April 2016, a referendum on the approval of the EU-Ukraine Association Agreement will be held in the Netherlands. This is the direct result of the Dutch Advisory Referendum Act (DAR), which entered into force on 1 July 2015. According to this Act, citizens can initiate a referendum on most laws and treaties after these have been approved by both chambers of parliament. This referendum may thus be regarded as an experiment with direct democracy giving the Dutch citizens a possibility to refute decisions taken at the political level.
An EU-critical foundation (Burgercomité EU) and a popular anti-establishment blog (GeenStijl) joined forces – under the name GeenPeil – and gathered the necessary 300,000 signatures to call for a referendum on the approval of the EU-Ukraine Association Agreement. That precisely this agreement became the subject of a public debate is a mere coincidence and can only be explained on the basis of timing. It was simply the first legal text approved in the Dutch parliament after the DAR entered into force and, therefore, the first occasion to test its implications in practice. Be that as it may, the crucial question is what the consequences will be when the Dutch citizens reject the Approval Act of the EU-Ukraine Association Agreement. This is not an implausible scenario taking into account that the first polls indicate a significant majority for the ‘no’ camp.
It is striking that none of the official bodies gave a clear-cut answer to this question. Prime Minister Rutte communicated that the government will wait for the outcome of the referendum to decide on its implications. The European Parliament simply took note of the upcoming referendum and ‘trusts that the decision of the Dutch people will be taken on the basis of the merits of the agreement, recognising its tangible effects on the EU and the Netherlands in particular.’ European Commission President Juncker, for his part, warned the Dutch population that a no vote could ‘open the door to a large continental crisis’ without however clarifying why this would be the case.
In principle, the legal implications of a Dutch no vote may be rather limited. The referendum is consultative and there is a turn-out requirement of 30 per cent. However, if the Approval Act is rejected by a significant majority of the population, the political leaders cannot simply ignore the outcome. This also happened after the consultative referendum on the Treaty establishing a Constitution for Europe back in 2005. Despite its consultative nature, the no vote in that referendum implied that the Netherlands was unable to ratify the constitutional treaty. Taking into account the requirements of the EU Treaty amendment procedure (Article 48 TEU), this treaty could therefore simply not enter into force. One may argue that also the EU-Ukraine Association Agreement, as a so-called mixed agreement signed by the EU and its 28 Member States, requires ratification by all parties before it can enter into force. However, there are significant differences between the amendment of EU primary law and the ratification of a mixed agreement. Most significantly, a large part of the EU-Ukraine Association Agreement belongs to the EU’s exclusive competences, either explicitly (such as the trade parts belonging to the Union’s Common Commercial Policy) or implicitly (due to the EU’s implied powers doctrine as codified in Article 3 (2) TFEU). A decision of the Netherlands not to ratify the EU-Ukraine Association Agreement may therefore not have the same far-reaching consequences.
A pragmatic solution to such a (so far hypothetical) situation could be the adoption of a so-called ‘adjusting protocol’ to the agreement. This is precisely what happened after the Swiss Confederation was not in a position to ratify the European Economic Area (EEA) Agreement in the 1990s. The most visible consequence of such a protocol would be the formal amendment of the agreement, implying that “the Netherlands” should be deleted as one of its contracting parties. As a result, those provisions of the Association Agreement belonging to Member State competences would not be applicable in the Netherlands. One could, for instance, think about the provision on mobility of workers (Art. 18 of the Agreement). Taking into account that the most significant parts of the agreement belong to EU competences, the impact of a Dutch non-participation would thus be rather limited. More important, however, will be position of the Netherlands within the Council, which still needs to formally conclude the agreement on behalf of the EU. The European Commission submitted its proposal on 23 May 2013 and the European Parliament already approved the agreement on 16 September 2014, in parallel with the Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine. In accordance with Article 218 (6) TFEU, the Council shall now adopt the decision concluding the agreement. Significantly, such a decision is still pending and has to be adopted by unanimity.
Arguably, a negative outcome in the Dutch referendum should not affect the formal approval of the agreement on behalf of the EU. After all, the scope of the referendum is limited to the question whether the Dutch citizens accept or reject the Approval Act of the EU-Ukraine Association Agreement as adopted in the Dutch Parliament. It, therefore, only concerns the participation of the Netherlands to the agreement. As far as the EU’s participation is concerned, a different ratification procedure applies involving a proposal of the Commission, the consent of the European Parliament and the adoption of a Council decision concluding the agreement. A (hypothetical) Dutch veto to the adoption of the Council’s decision as a result of a negative referendum would neglect the very essence of this distinction. It would not be a victory for democracy as proclaimed by the Dutch initiators of the referendum but rather the opposite. Allowing a relatively small part of the population in a relatively small member state to block the entry into force of an agreement which is approved by the national parliaments of 29 countries and the European Parliament would be very cynical. It would also undermine the consistency and legitimacy of the EU’s external action taking into account that other, largely comparable agreements would remain unaffected.
Finally, a significant part of the Association Agreement already provisionally entered into force. A Dutch decision to reject the approval act will not automatically affect this practice, precisely because the provisional application only concerns those matters falling within the Union’s competence. This caveat is explicitly included in the relevant Council Decisions. In other words, the practical legal implications of the Dutch referendum may be expected to be minimal, even if the ratification of the agreement in the Netherlands would be rejected. The consequences would be more significant at the political level. An overwhelming no vote would be rather embarrassing for the Dutch government at a moment it is holding the rotating EU Council Presidency. It would also be annoying for the EU as such, taking into account the upcoming Brexit referendum and the rise of Euroscepticism on the continent.
Very interesting and instructive thoughts on the matter. As you’ve said, a „no“ vote will have political implications rather than legal. But, in your opinion, how long may it take to adopt an adjusting protocol? What about Russia? For the Russian diplomacy a „no“ vote will be a good chance to stir up the water among other EU members.
Peter van Elsuwege seems to be suggesting that the Dutch government might simply ignore the referendum and approve the Agreement at the European Council regardless of the result. That would appear somewhat contemptuous of the newly-established referendum process.
Since it seems unlikely that popular opposition to the Agreement is limited to the Netherlands would a „no“ vote on 6th April be a good opportunity for the Commission to consider whether the present Association Agreement is really the best way forward as far as the EU’s relations with Ukraine (and indeed the wider Eastern Neighbourhood) are concerned? A narrower agreement which focused only on trade and did not antagonise Ukraine’s neighbours might command wider support. One must question, for example, why Article 4 – which advocates „gradual convergence on foreign and security matters with
the aim of Ukraine’s ever-deeper involvement in the European security area“ – is required in a free-trade agreement.
mr. van Elsuwege correctly calls this new DAR act the Dutch Advisory Referendum Act, but after that calls it a “corrective‘ referendum, which is something very different! The Parliament accorded only the Advisory Referendum. Of course it is of political importance if a large majority of the people should advise against a decision of the Government and as such not meaningless, but has no juridicial power even íf it would be possible within this Treaty to withdraw!
„even íf it would be possible within this Treaty to withdraw!“
As Peter points out the European Council has yet to adopt a decision concluding the agreement. Such adoption requires unanimity so the Dutch government has a veto.
@Oleksiy: difficult to say anything about timing since this will depend upon the outcome and the attitude of the Dutch government after the referendum.
@Simon: I did not write that the referendum can be ignored whatever the outcome, I only argued that its implications should be limited to the Netherlands and not affect the entire EU (since it has been democratically approved by all national parliaments and the European Parliament).
@ B.C. Visser: the term ‚corrective‘ referendum was used since the parliament already adopted the approval act and the population is now asked whether or not this parliamentary decision should be ‚corrected‘. As mentioned in the text, the outcome is consultative.
Thanks for your reply. You suggest that the implications of a potential „no“ should be limited to the Netherlands but given that adoption at the Council must be unanimous it is hard to see how this could be achieved without the Dutch government’s ignoring the result. Perhaps the time has come to accept to qualified majority voting for treaties of this kind?
The approval by national parliaments is surely highly provisional since the final text of the Agreement has yet to be published.
Very interesting thought.
@Simon, I don’t think appeasement is in place for a treaty that already has been ratified on behalf of 44 million Ukrainians and 490 million Europeans, and the process is only halted by 17 million Dutch. The solution proposed is quite elegant.
@Peter: there seems to be an example of an Association Agreement that took a lengthy amount of time for ratification. Do you know which one that was?
@all: the government could ignore a majority „no“ given that the threshold has been surpassed. The minister of Foreign Affairs, on behalf of the government, wrote to parliament that the government will consider the options „in view of the societal debate on the topic“, but the second party in the coalition – ironically the Labour party of which the MFA is a member, already announced it shall respect „the will of the people“. Dangerous games being played…
I’m surprised that you use the word „appeasement“. Does responding to the views of voters constitute „appeasement“? Surely a democratic government has a responsibility to react to the concerns of its citizens?
Further can one really say that the Association Agreement has been accepted by national parliaments when its text is still being revised as part of the Minsk II negotiations. Surely approval should be based on the final text not the provisional version currently available?
I would first like to state that I voted in favour of the trade agreement, and that I am far from the sort of Eurosceptic that froths at the mouth at the mere mention of Brussels. The truth is that this referendum was never about Ukraine to start with, and as such it is completely inappropriate that the people in the Ukraine should have to suffer because of it.
However, I feel quite strongly that the blame for this sort of thing happening is that there is no other outlet for people to engage in dialogue with the people who make the decisions within the EU. Many people feel that the EU is like an unstoppable train that they have no influence over. And as much as the media would like to focus on the Dutch at this moment, this a feeling that is shared throughout much of Europe.
Frankly, it isn’t helped by the national governments who vote in agreement with every EU decision every single time, yet when they stand for national elections pretend that all the EU decisions were forced upon them, thus cleverly avoiding having to answer to the public. As such, there is a definite democratic deficit in the EU that has to be addressed somehow, or else things like this will keep happening and eventually enough people may be disgruntled enough to press their governments to leave the EU, as may happen soon in the U.K.