France’s Legislative Elections and the Uncertain Path to 2027
As most expected, Marine Le Pen’s Rassemblement National (RN) was the clear winner of the first round of the snap legislative elections in France, unexpectedly called by President Macron three weeks ago. Le Pen’s party, allied with a rump Les Républicains, led by Eric Ciotti, obtained 33.1% of the votes. A coalition including moderate and radical left parties, the Nouveau Front Populaire (NFP), came second with 28.1%, while the centrist parties supporting Gabriel Attal’s government received 21.3%. The mainstream right Républicains who refused to ally with the RN stopped at 6.6%. The RN confirmed its strong showing at last month’s European elections and more than doubled its votes in comparison to the last legislative elections of April 2022. Yet, an RN-led government is not a foregone conclusion.
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A Global South Perspective on Loss and Damage Litigation
In June 2024, delegates undertook two-week-long negotiations at the UNFCCC Bonn Climate Change Conference. These meetings concerned the modalities of the newly instituted Loss and Damage (L&D) Fund and the provision of financial assistance to developing countries. In this piece, we reflect on the future interactions between the L&D Fund and litigations regarding L&D. We argue that these two phenomena must be seen as having a synergistic relation, effectively benefitting the Global South.
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A High-Stakes Game
So it has happened: Marine Le Pen’s Rassemblement National (RN) received more than twice the votes of Macron’s Renaissance list in the European elections (31.4% vs. 14.6%). Following the results, Macron announced to dissolve parliament and call an early election. Judging by the immediate reactions on social media, Macron’s announcement shocked several commentators and the public. Yet, from the perspective of the 2027 presidential elections, the reasoning may not be as reckless as it seems. Macron’s calculation is based on the consideration that three more years of the current situation would make a Le Pen presidency highly likely in 2027.
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