Ursula von der Leyen als Kollateral­schaden des britischen Wahlkampfs?

Als designierte Kommissionspräsidentin durchläuft Ursula von der Leyen derzeit einen Schnellkurs in den Untiefen europäischer Politik. Zuerst mussten drei Kandidat/innen während der parlamentarischen Anhörung aufgeben und der ungarische Ersatzkandidat muss weiterhin zittern. Sodann teilte Boris Johnson am Mittwochabend schriftlich mit, dass seine Regierung keinen Kommissar vorschlagen werde. Seither überschlugen sich die Ereignisse. Am Donnerstagabend eröffnete die Kommission ein Vertragsverletzungsverfahren gegen das Vereinigte Königreich.

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Dealing with a Rogue UK Prime Minister

In the current “Brexit” crisis, the EU should strive to achieve a smooth agreement-based process. This is the only way to ensure that the intricate web binding the UK to the EU is not ripped up without a reliable substitute. Boris Johnson’s priority to withdraw the UK on 31 October "do or die“ is next to impossible to reconcile with that aim. Domestically, it will be difficult to halt Johnson’s no-deal plan. But what about the EU? Indeed, there are several measures the EU could take to deal with a rogue UK Prime Minister and to make a smooth withdrawal more likely.

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Is Brexit a Game?

Can Boris Johnson’s and Dominic Cumming’s Brexit strategy be made plausible by means of game theory? I think not. It seems too simple to present the current situation as a two-party game, with the UK (or Boris Johnson) on one side and the EU on the other. In reality, Johnson faces two opposite players—one being the EU, the other the hard Brexit opponents and the Supreme Court at home.

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Boris Johnson’s Strategy of Assured Mutual Destruction: Crazy but not Irrational

One of the frequent equivocal “courtesy” titles that has been awarded to Boris Johnson these days is that of plunger or reckless gambler. Boris Johnson may be many things — his language coarse, his behavior ruthless — but if you analyze his behavior in the current Brexit affair from a decision theoretic angle there is a rational interpretation for his seemingly irrational approach.

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Boris and the Queen: Lessons from Canada

UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson’s advice to the Queen that she prorogue Parliament for several weeks has sparked vociferous controversy. The unfortunate situation, which threatens to do real damage to constitutional, political and social relationships, has some analogues in former British dominions such as Canada.

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Prorogued until October?

The British government yesterday secured a prorogation of Parliament from the Queen. Parliament will stand prorogued no earlier than Monday 9th September and no later than Thursday 12th September 2019 to Monday 14th October 2019. For many commentators the weeks from now until 12 September and from 14 October to 31 October (the day the United Kingdom exits the European Union) were crucial. It tipped the balance of the prorogation from blindingly unconstitutional to constitutionally dubious, but permissible. Regardless of whether one finds this line of reasoning convincing, there is a threat that this prorogation can be extended indefinitely that has been largely overlooked: the Prorogation Act 1867.

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