Avoiding the next Brexit Cliff-Edge

Boris Johnson wants to legally exclude the prolongation of the extension period of the Withdrawal Agreement. The way to prolong it nevertheless would be an amendment of the Withdrawal Agreement itself. Some argue now that any other way to change the transition period than its prolongation by the JC is legally impossible. Another reading of the legal situation is, however, supportable.

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Back to the Future?

Although the UK has appeared to move from one constitutional crisis to the next during this year, there has been a clear direction of travel: 2019 saw both the legislature and the courts strengthening their checks over the executive. The Conservative Party Manifesto may be interpreted as an attempt to reverse this direction of travel and reinstate the executive at the centre of the Constitution.

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Ursula von der Leyen als Kollateral­schaden des britischen Wahlkampfs?

Als designierte Kommissionspräsidentin durchläuft Ursula von der Leyen derzeit einen Schnellkurs in den Untiefen europäischer Politik. Zuerst mussten drei Kandidat/innen während der parlamentarischen Anhörung aufgeben und der ungarische Ersatzkandidat muss weiterhin zittern. Sodann teilte Boris Johnson am Mittwochabend schriftlich mit, dass seine Regierung keinen Kommissar vorschlagen werde. Seither überschlugen sich die Ereignisse. Am Donnerstagabend eröffnete die Kommission ein Vertragsverletzungsverfahren gegen das Vereinigte Königreich.

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Dealing with a Rogue UK Prime Minister

In the current “Brexit” crisis, the EU should strive to achieve a smooth agreement-based process. This is the only way to ensure that the intricate web binding the UK to the EU is not ripped up without a reliable substitute. Boris Johnson’s priority to withdraw the UK on 31 October "do or die“ is next to impossible to reconcile with that aim. Domestically, it will be difficult to halt Johnson’s no-deal plan. But what about the EU? Indeed, there are several measures the EU could take to deal with a rogue UK Prime Minister and to make a smooth withdrawal more likely.

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Is Brexit a Game?

Can Boris Johnson’s and Dominic Cumming’s Brexit strategy be made plausible by means of game theory? I think not. It seems too simple to present the current situation as a two-party game, with the UK (or Boris Johnson) on one side and the EU on the other. In reality, Johnson faces two opposite players—one being the EU, the other the hard Brexit opponents and the Supreme Court at home.

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Boris Johnson’s Strategy of Assured Mutual Destruction: Crazy but not Irrational

One of the frequent equivocal “courtesy” titles that has been awarded to Boris Johnson these days is that of plunger or reckless gambler. Boris Johnson may be many things — his language coarse, his behavior ruthless — but if you analyze his behavior in the current Brexit affair from a decision theoretic angle there is a rational interpretation for his seemingly irrational approach.

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