01 August 2024
Unprecedented Fraud and New Momentum
Venezuela is entering a new, dangerous phase of its conflict. Though not fully verified, the opposition appears to have won the July 28 election by a landslide. Nicolás Maduro's government has likely committed unprecedented fraud, tampering with votes and withholding tallies. Massive protests have erupted nationwide, with the government rapidly increasing repression and surveillance. This challenges prospects for a democratic transition, requiring a skilled national and international response. Continue reading >>
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04 July 2023
Bolsonaro Faces the Rule of Law
On 30 June 2023, the Brazilian Electoral Superior Court ruled that former President Jair Bolsonaro is disqualified from running for any electoral position for the next eight years. Although there are fifteen other electoral actions brought against Bolsonaro by other political parties or by public electoral prosecutors, most of which refer to accusations of attempting to compromise the integrity of the 2022 elections, this was the first case to reach Brazil’s highest electoral court. Despite there being a precedent, the ruling is not a legal innovation, but the mere application of existing laws. Continue reading >>
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25 September 2019
Voting in Russia: Please Don’t Call it “Elections”
On September 8, numerous Russian regions voted in the framework of a so-called “single voting day”. Most significantly, Moscow voted for the members of City Council (“Duma”), and Russia’s second-largest city Saint Petersburg was to elect its governor. It would be a mistake, however, to draw any conclusions on the sentiments of the Russian people from the results as the voting process was skewed at every stage of the so-called “election”. Continue reading >>15 August 2019
Putin and the Costs of Being Wrong
Since mid-2019, Moscow experiences a wave of public protests, triggered by the decision of the government not to allow several opposition candidates to run for the city parliament in the elections scheduled for September. How can we explain this unprecedented rise of spontaneous protests activity? For me, the protests in Moscow are an example of a core problem any authoritarian regime faces but which is frequently overlooked by the analysts and scientists: the risks of mistakes. Continue reading >>
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