08 August 2024
Konfrontation, Kohabitation, Koalition
Die Parlamentswahlen in Frankreich 2024 haben bisher wenig Konstantes, sondern vor allem Unerwartetes hervorgebracht. Dieser Artikel versucht, das verfassungsrechtliche und politische Geflecht in einem Vierschritt zu entwirren: von der Konfrontationslage zur Kohabitation und Koalitionsbildung sowie zuletzt zu den Konsequenzen für die Europäische Union. Die französischen Parlamentswahlen haben das Land in ein verfassungsrechtliches Spannungsfeld geführt, das die politischen Akteure zwingt, Koalitionen neu zu erlernen, während dabei die europäische Stabilität durch die innerfranzösischen Machtkämpfe auf die Probe gestellt werden wird. Continue reading >>
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08 July 2024
The French Fifth Republic Enters Uncharted Waters
After yesterday's elections, the French Fifth Republic steps into uncharted waters. In the short term, France’s role at the heart of EU integration and as a key supporter of Ukraine remains steadfast. This stability is impressive, given most predictions. However, this new phase of French politics will be fragmented and fluid, demanding a recalibration to find a stable equilibrium while countering the far right. French moderate parties face a tough road ahead. Their success or failure will not only shape France’s future but also reverberate beyond its borders. Continue reading >>
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02 July 2024
France’s Legislative Elections and the Uncertain Path to 2027
As most expected, Marine Le Pen’s Rassemblement National (RN) was the clear winner of the first round of the snap legislative elections in France, unexpectedly called by President Macron three weeks ago. Le Pen’s party, allied with a rump Les Républicains, led by Eric Ciotti, obtained 33.1% of the votes. A coalition including moderate and radical left parties, the Nouveau Front Populaire (NFP), came second with 28.1%, while the centrist parties supporting Gabriel Attal’s government received 21.3%. The mainstream right Républicains who refused to ally with the RN stopped at 6.6%. The RN confirmed its strong showing at last month’s European elections and more than doubled its votes in comparison to the last legislative elections of April 2022. Yet, an RN-led government is not a foregone conclusion. Continue reading >>
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10 June 2024