28 November 2023
Machado vs. the Goliath Chavista
On October 27, María Corina Machado, was declared the winner of the presidential primary elections organized by the National Commission, a civil society association. With more than 92% of the votes, she has become the new face of the Venezuelan opposition. Despite having popular support, her ability to run for the presidency in 2024 is in doubt. Since June 2023, the political ban she was once subject to in 2015 has been extended for fifteen years, which the Venezuelan Supreme Tribunal of Justice (STJ) confirmed on October 30 following an electoral administrative appeal by the pro-government parliamentarian Brito Rodríguez. This blog details why Machado’s disqualification violates Venezuela’s constitution and should be seen as Maduro’s latest attempt to obstruct the holding of free and fair elections in 2024. Continue reading >>
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13 November 2023
A Second Term for “the World’s coolest Dictator”?
On October 26, Nayib Bukele, current President of the Republic of El Salvador, officially registered his candidacy for the presidency. This is in clear violation of El Salvador’s Constitution which prohibits the renewed, consecutive candidacy of a sitting president. In the "Western" media, Bukele has mostly made the news for establishing "mega-prisons" and conducting mass arrests under his watch. In this blogpost, I highlight the political moves that Bukele has made to legitimize his rule and methods, including his repeated extension of El Salvador’s state of emergency and his capture of the Constitutional Chamber. Together with his renewed candidacy, his rule has destroyed El Salvador’s adherence to its own constitutional framework. Continue reading >>
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26 October 2023
To Hell, on a White Horse
Slovakia voted on the final day of September 2023. The electoral rhetoric, results and subsequent coalition-building give grounds to expect illiberal constitutional changes. More attention is needed towards the Constitutional Court’s capacity to resist such illiberalization, as Slovakia may join Hungary in a revamped illiberal Visegrad alliance. Continue reading >>
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27 September 2023
Wartime Elections as Democratic Backsliding
The topic of the next elections to the Verkhovna Rada (Parliament) of Ukraine unexpectedly surfaced in public discourse towards the end of spring this year. Julia Kyrychenko and Olha Ivasiuk’s recent article on Verfassungsblog outlines major legal and practical obstacles to holding wartime elections in Ukraine. In their illuminating analysis, the authors make a strong case against wartime elections, a viewpoint largely shared by civil society. My argument is a bit different. I will argue that (1) wartime parliamentary elections are expressis verbis inconsistent with the Ukrainian Constitution, and (2) wartime elections would undermine the legitimacy of democratic institutions and potentially lead to democratic backsliding. Continue reading >>
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25 September 2023
No Voting Under Fire
Can Ukraine hold elections while it is in the midst of a full-scale invasion by Russia? This question has recently received international attention, including comments from US Senator Lindsey Graham advocating for elections during the war. However, holding elections during the current state of war faces not only factual but also legal obstacles. Genuine democratic elections cannot be conducted under fire from Russian troops. Continue reading >>
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20 September 2023
Poland’s Elections: Free, perhaps, but not Fair
Poland’s upcoming parliamentary elections will be the country’s most important vote since the historic elections of 1989. Indeed, the momentous character of the elections might be the only thing upon which the governing PiS (Law and Justice) party and the opposition might agree. If the elections in October were fair, PiS’ defeat might be plausible though by no means certain. Yet, the preceding sentence identifies a condition we already know will not occur. In this analysis, I map the multiple ways in which the system has been rigged in favour of the incumbents. While I will only describe the most striking aspects of this unfairness, they all form parts of a system and thus should not be looked at in isolation. Kaczyński is a shrewd politician. There’s a method to his (apparent) madness. For the opposition to win is thus a Herculean task. Herculeses do appear in politics – but not that often. Continue reading >>
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01 September 2023
Direct Democracy and Indirect Electoral Campaign
In a last-minute attempt to grow voter presence at the booths on the 15th of October, Poland’s ruling party announced it would be combining the upcoming parliamentary elections with a referendum vote on not one, but four issues. This provides the governing powers with an additional electoral campaign just for them – misnamed as the referendum – to draw public attention to the questions asked. After all, they were drafted by those seeking reelection and focus on matters most used in their political agenda. Continue reading >>14 August 2023
An Attack on Indian Democracy
Last week, the Indian government introduced a bill in Parliament providing for, inter alia, the mechanism for appointing Election Commissioners in India. The bill proposes the creation of a three-member Selection Committee composed of the Prime Minister, a Union Minister nominated by the Prime Minister, and the Leader of the Opposition to make recommendations to the President in this regard. The proposed Executive-dominated Selection Committee raises several questions about the conduct of free and fair elections in India. In the paragraphs to follow, I first discuss a recent Supreme Court decision that preceded the introduction of this bill and how this bill, as a response to the Court decision, is instructive to constitutional drafters. I then discuss the possible approaches the Supreme Court of India could adopt when the new legislation is challenged to push back against the Executive’s undemocratic maneuvers. Continue reading >>
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23 May 2023
A Flawed Vote, Not a Horse Race
The elections in Turkey/Türkiye showed the dilemma for the political opposition in competitive authoritarian regimes: They have to create momentum for change. They must believe it is possible to win elections. If they don't believe this, their voters won't. It is difficult to avoid this dilemma, but there is something journalists, experts and officials from other countries can do: Always stress the unfairness of the conditions in which the elections are being held. Do not get a carried away by the excitement of the race. Focus on the fact that the race is not being run on level ground. Continue reading >>09 May 2023
Of Red Fruits and Social Conflict
These days of electoral campaign in Spain, as usual, water is among the current issues. Recently, a controversial proposal by the conservative parties of the Andalusian Parliament aims to re-grant the status of agricultural land to certain land in the vicinity of the Doñana National Park (Huelva, Spain). Doñana suffers a long social conflict triggered by several decisions adopted to protect this singular place. As we will see, this is a clear example of the political use of the tension generated by environmental protection and socio-economic interests, especially in times of elections. Continue reading >>
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