29 April 2024
The Enemy Within
Naivety persists when it comes to understanding the scope of the hybrid war that Russia is currently waging against us, with the role played by the Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban being a good example. European diplomats, politicians and commentators continue to underestimate the security risk that he poses as Putin's willing puppet. As a result, they are right now sleepwalking into what will likely be a disastrous Hungarian EU Presidency, not only for the Union itself but also for Ukraine. Continue reading >>
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05 April 2024
European Democracy at Stake in Battle of the EP versus Orbán
Shortly after the entry into force of the Lisbon Treaty in 2009, the European Parliament expressed its concern about the rule of law in Hungary. 14 years later, the EP still, and yet again, discusses PM Orbán’s lack of respect for the values of the Union. The forthcoming debate on 10 April will be the Parliament’s last chance to prevent the scheduled takeover of the Council-Presidency by Hungary. The EP and the European Council must prevent a self-proclaimed illiberal leader from assuming the Presidency of the Council and thus protect the democratic nature of the European Union. Continue reading >>
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04 April 2024
Strengthening the Resilience of the Rule of Law through Democracy
For almost a decade now, the European Union (EU) has been struggling with the erosion of the rule of law in some of its Member States. The IEP explored the various pillars of the rule of law resilience, culminating in the recent RESILIO report. Unsurprisingly, the independent judiciary and effective public administration prove to be key for the functioning of the rule of law. To remain resilient, the rule of law needs a solid democratic political culture anchored in a robust civil society, independent media, and a sound public debate. Henceforth, a long-term investment in democracy is the best way to strengthen the resilience of the rule of law. Continue reading >>
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15 March 2024
The Sovereign Protection Office as the Tip of the Iceberg
In December 2023, the Hungarian Parliament passed a law establishing a Sovereign Protection Office—a state administration which now possesses unfettered access to personal data to find and sanction supposed foreign agents among the Hungarian populace. This office operates at will and without oversight, offers no avenue for legal redress, and wields prison time upwards of three years. In recent weeks, the European Commission launched an infringement proceeding over the law, and the European Parliament called on the European Council to consider Article 7(2) procedures. Continue reading >>
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11 March 2024
A Constitutional Dignitary Conceived in the Orbán-Regime
On 26 February, Tamás Sulyok, the former President of the Hungarian Constitutional Court, was elected Head of State by the Parliament. The election of Tamás Sulyok as a member of the Constitutional Court and then as its president was part of the process during which Fidesz took over the Constitutional Court. Sulyok’s presidency (2016-2024) was a testimony to the fact that the Constitutional Court has become subservient to the Fidesz-dominated political branches, and there is no sign that he has actively tried to do anything against it. Based on what we have seen so far, therefore, Tamás Sulyok is part of the Orbán-regime, and nothing suggests that he will exercise greater autonomy and independence in his role as Head of State. Continue reading >>
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21 February 2024
Autocratic (Il)legalism
It is a common myth that since the Fidesz-KDNP coalition has almost always had a two-thirds parliamentary majority since 2010, the Orbán-government could pass its illiberal legislative reforms in a legally correct manner. In reality, however, many laws that constitute the pillars of Orbán’s illiberal regime were enacted in violation of the procedural requirements of the rule of law. The European Commission’s country visit to Hungary provides an opportunity to remind the EU bodies of their responsibility to enforce all requirements of the rule of law without compromise. Continue reading >>
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26 January 2024
Too Little, Too Late
All signs indicate that the various procedures and instruments invented and used by the European Commission to improve the situation of the rule of law in Hungary have so far not been successful. In fact, apart from a few sham measures, democracy and rule of law, in their simplest definitions (the possibility to overthrow the incumbent government through free and fair elections, and the limitation of political power by law) are in a worse situation in Hungary today than when the various mechanisms for protecting the rule of law were launched or payments were suspended. Why have the tools used by the European Union so far proven ineffective? Finding the causes of a complex phenomenon is never easy, but the experience of recent years makes it possible to identify some that can explain this failure. Continue reading >>
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21 December 2023
Same, Same but Different?
The Commission’s decision to release a significant amount of EU money is a testament to some serious pitfalls in the mechanism, which governs the unblocking of frozen EU funds. To recall, Hungary’s endowments are blocked via two different channels, based on two different conditionality criteria, which have some overlapping points. Both prescribe reforms to preserve the independence of the judiciary, which according to the Commission’s justification has been successfully accomplished by Hungary. The Commission has, however, never published a detailed plan that would attach a specific amount to be released to every sufficiently satisfied conditionality criterion. In this blog post, I showcase that the overlap between the two conditionality mechanisms and the absence of a robust ex-ante blueprint for releasing frozen funds make the unblocking process highly obscure. This lack of transparency both decreases the efficiency and robustness of conditionality, and increases the tendency for inter-institutional conflicts. Continue reading >>
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15 December 2023
Orbán’s Veto Play – The Subsidiarity Card
Viktor Orbán is known to use veto threats in the European Council to get his way. This time, he was keen to see that after months of tense exchanges with the Commission, Hungary gets access to EU funds that had been blocked in order to achieve compliance with the rule of law and fundamental rights conditionality. So, PM Orbán saw it fit to loudly contest Ukraine’s accession and the financial aid package of 50 billion Euros. This may be PM Orbán’s strongest veto play to date. Continue reading >>
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14 December 2023
The Future of the Rule of Law in the EU
With systemic threats to and violations of the rule of law not subsiding, notwithstanding the expected end of backsliding in the case of Poland, the future of the rule of law in the EU is likely to be one of retrenchment accompanied by increased gaslighting to mask an increased gap between EU rhetoric and EU action. This means that the Commission’s decision to unlock € 10 bn of EU funding previously frozen on rule of law grounds to “sway Viktor Orbán on Ukraine” should not be seen as a once-off aberration but as prefiguration of a new abnormal normal. Continue reading >>
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