01 November 2024

The Messiah and His Oligarchs

Last Sunday, somewhere between 33rd Street and 6th Avenue, we found ourselves among thousands of people in MAGA hats and red T-shirts waiting to attend Donald Trump’s rally – block by block, hour after hour. The attendees came from Upstate New York or even other boroughs of the city, feverishly excited to finally see Donald Trump in person at Madison Square Garden. Some of them, as they told us, regularly travel around the country to attend his rallies.

We decided to queue with them to catch a glimpse of an event marking a particularly pompous and dark ending to the campaign season. Trump is by no means predicted to win the state of New York (according to recent polling, he trails Harris here by almost 20%). However, speaking in Manhattan, the epicenter of coastal elitism, was meant to be a show of power and confidence. It was also meant to demonstrate Trump’s success at building a movement, fueled by grievance politics, racist demagoguery, and his questionable talent for mainstreaming the formerly unutterable. The rally featured a nonetheless shocking amount of inflammatory, racist rhetoric on immigrants, “stolen elections,” “the enemy from within,” and a general disdain for what he portrays as a broken system of government in this country. Above the arena floated a large, messianic sign, promising that “Trump will fix it.”

This “it” can mean many things: democracy, inflation, immigration, the economy. It renders Trump and his movement a broad and inclusive canvas upon which a surprisingly diverse range of people – young, old, rich, poor, white, and non-white – can project whatever grievances they might hold. It is true that voters in the U.S. are discontent with a variety of very fundamental issues: 50% of Americans do not believe in democracy, 55% of Americans want immigration reduced. In swing states, as many as eight out of ten people say the economy is only “fair” or “poor”. Trump’s supporters believe that he will “fix” whatever issue they deem most important.

When we asked a young woman in line why she supported Trump, she answered plainly and calmly: “Because he makes me feel safe. He puts ‘the people’ above ‘the government.’ He stands for harmony, peace, and success.” To many, this sentiment will seem absurd, given that Trump has promised to use the judicial system to persecute and deport his opponents, deploy the military on “the enemy from within,” and use troops to physically harm both “violent protesters” and undocumented migrants at the border. For his supporters, however, he can “get things done.” Their devotion to Trump is not so much motivated by a specific political issue as it is by Trump as a person and by the movement that has grown around him.

So, while last week’s editorial was all about the electoral system’s institutional peculiarities, this week, we want to focus on the people – the personalities – that fundamentally shape this election. This is, first and foremost, Donald Trump himself. Trump’s persona is arguably what matters most to voters. When we asked a man standing in line whether he cared to see any of the other speakers at the rally, he laughed and said: “No. Only Trump. He’s the main guy.” Yet, there are other significant personalities shaping this election, too, most notably Elon Musk, who also spoke at the rally at Madison Square Garden.

To better understand Trump’s enigmatic appeal, its implications for American democracy, and the oligarchic structures shaping this election, we spoke with people from two very different perspectives: dedicated Trump supporters at the rally and prominent legal scholars such as Sam Issacharoff of New York University and Julie Cohen of Georgetown University.

Personality Cult and Populism

To many of the people queuing around us in front of Madison Square Garden, Trump is a messiah; some even compared his rally in New York to a march to “Mecca.” His rallies are ecstatic events; people cheer and laugh as they condemn and insult their various enemies. They are themselves mesmerized by the size of the crowd. People documented the masses by video and camera, joined in on patriotic chants like “USA! USA! USA!” every time the line moved an inch, and collegially distributed MAGA merchandise. When a pedestrian asked the crowd if they were “ready to vote for a dictator,” the sea of red hats and T-shirts uniformly shouted to “Lock him up!” The uniformity – in quite literal uniform, but also in belief and obedience – of mass movements and their unsettling dimension became particularly evident as we stood in line. Being part of a cult, we understood, ultimately means to feel empowered, special, one of the chosen ones, close to the person who has all the answers.

To large parts of the electorate, Trump seems to be much more than a politician. To many, he seems to embody an evident truth, an obvious, almost spiritual call for justice. In Trump’s own words, he claims to be the “retribution” of “the forgotten men and women of America.” That truth, in the minds of many Americans, seems so evident that any election that does not certify Trump as a winner is illegitimate, explicable only through “rigging” by the other side.

This false narrative of “stolen” elections has also intensified Trump’s already poignant personality cult, elevating him from just another politician that can be voted out of office to a leader who cannot lose. This switch from politician to leader renders Trump a populist, but a particularly dangerous one. Instead of trying to win in a democratic system through populist promises, Trump intends to shatter the democratic system by laying claim to power and office through means other than the ballot box. In Trump’s telling, electing him only formalizes a status he already has: the leader of the people, the good and righteous Americans.

This is, of course, deeply troubling. As Samuel Issacharoff, Professor of Constitutional Law at New York University, explains, a key feature of democracy is a commitment to “repeat play” as well as an institutional system designed so that the majority can prevail, but not too much. Meanwhile, key to populism as a political strategy is an assault on those institutions – including those designed to ensure that “repeat play” in fact occurs, that is, elections followed by a peaceful transfer of power. Populists, in turn, insist that such institutions are unnecessary to realize the real and unmediated will of the people of which they are the expositor. What is particularly worrying about Trump in this regard is that he creates a sense of cataclysmic elections, both through his rhetoric and actions. Issacharoff is uncertain whether a democracy, however resilient, can survive several elections in a row seen in these terms. For if “the apocalypse” is upon us, neither respect for institutions nor “repeat play” is seen as worth preserving.

The G.O.P. on the Verge of Democracy

But Trump’s personality cult does not only sway his supporters. It has also taken hold of his own party, the G.O.P., whose political culture he has permanently transformed. Members of the party who have spoken out against him, like Liz Cheney, who voted to impeach him after the January 6th attack, have been exiled from the party. When Trump speaks of the “enemy from within,” he not only means Democrats but also members of the party who dare to express the slightest form of dissent.

The breakdown of the Republican Party is indeed a development that Issacharoff considers both distinctive and deeply worrisome about Trump’s populism. Contrary to populist movements elsewhere, the U.S. is the only country in which hardcore populism captured one of the established parties rather than rebelling against them and going out on their own. Trump’s staggering success at capturing the G.O.P. has turned the party into his obedient vehicle, with no inner core, that has trouble performing even the most basic functions, such as electing a House leader. Whether the G.O.P.’s Trumpian capture has moved it outside of the democratic system remains to be seen. However, Issacharoff worries that the party’s acceptance of January 6th as an article of faith may be a bad omen. One litmus test, he points out, will be whether the party rises in rebellion against a transfer of power if Harris prevails.

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American Oligarchy

Now, enter the (other) billionaires. Trump aside, American politics is also increasingly shaped by a few ultra-rich individuals – all men – who wield an unrivaled amount of money, infrastructural control, discursive power, and socio-cultural status. Chief among them is Elon Musk, the richest man on earth. Like Trump, he sharply divides public opinion, particularly among the intelligentsia. Known for his Twitter spats, Martian ambitions, and electric vehicles, Musk has recently taken a hard right. His contributions to the Trump campaign now total tens of millions, and he has, arguably illegally, put up a million-dollar prize for Pennsylvanians who register to vote and sign a conservative petition. This degree of involvement in an election cycle, coupled with that of other high-profile billionaires, reveals not just a play for deregulation but an ambitious, ideological set-up that seeks to overcome the state and democratic governance altogether.

Of course, Musk is by no means the only billionaire pouring money and resources into this election. The 2016 Clinton, 2020 Biden, and 2024 Harris campaigns have far outspent the respective Trump campaign, in no small part due to the generous donations of America’s business elites. Such contributions, however, arguably came predominantly with more “traditional deregulatory” policy demands than what people like Musk have in mind.

Silicon Valley’s Ideological Project

Yet, Musk and his billionaire peers’ overt political influence – think of the recently retracted presidential endorsements of major newspapers like The Washington Post and The Los Angeles Times – may be the visible tip of a broader ideological transformation, particularly coming from Silicon Valley. To better understand this, we spoke with Georgetown University’s Julie Cohen, a leading scholar on the information economy. Cohen calls the Silicon Valley elite “Trump-curious.” For many in tech, she argues, Trump represents not just deregulation but a chance to question the legitimacy of government oversight altogether.

The libertarian impulse is nothing new in American politics. Yet, traditionally, that impulse was largely limited to advocating for personal choice and privatized services. But today’s tech “oligarchs,” as Cohen terms them, aim not just to shape policy but to rethink the very mode of decision-making on fundamental societal matters. Many of their ideas sound fantastical, envisioning a world where AI and private colonies (on Mars and Earth) eclipse democracy, and digital currencies replace government money.

But it is precisely this over-the-top ambition, bolstered by the cult of personality surrounding figures like Musk, that makes their ideology a potent – if perilous – counterpart to Trump’s populism. If you are in the mood for a horror story, take a look at the “Techno-Optimist Manifesto” penned by two (in)famous Silicon Valley magnates. Fantasies about a “rational” world governed by technology and private property might sound far-fetched, but they are fueled by a conviction that an alternative to the current system is not just desirable – it is necessary.

Anti-Government as Government?

It is unclear what role such beliefs play for the electorate at large. People will vote for Trump for many reasons – economic policies, cultural or religious views, or out of fear of Democrats “Sovietizing” America. Few will actually care what Musk says at a rally or what he intends to do on Mars. As the Trump fan we talked to said: Trump is the main guy.

But most of these Trump fans will not be wielding power in a Trump administration. Their ideological conviction is, once the election is over, much less important than the ideological scaffolding of the people populating the highest echelons of power if the Republicans were to win on Tuesday.

The upper ranks of a Trump administration would likely be stacked with figures hailing directly from Silicon Valley. As key segments of the Valley align with Trump – not necessarily out of allegiance to his persona, but rather as a vehicle for their goal of diminishing public governance – the prospect of figures like Elon Musk taking aim at federal agencies could catalyze far more than a routine deregulation drive. Even the free-market zealots of the 1980s recognized some minimal role for public power. Today’s tech titans, however, seem increasingly intent on outgrowing the state itself, seeing it as little more than a relic. Cohen agrees. “This is qualitatively new,” she says.

Combine this aversion to public governance with the immense wealth and power concentrated in the hands of just a few men and add the Trump movement’s broad, fervent base, and you have a potentially explosive mix.

None of this is oversensitive fearmongering. For example, the Pentagon and the U.S. government in general are increasingly worried by their dependence on Musk’s satellite and rocket infrastructure, his very own shadow foreign policy (for example, he regularly speaks with Russian President Vladimir Putin), and the American state’s eroding sovereignty over these issues.

After Tuesday

For Trump, his followers, and the oligarchs, elections themselves may no longer be a marker of democratic legitimacy. Instead, for them, strong polling numbers and packed rallies translate directly into a claim to power. On this view, neither Trump nor his billionaire supporters need the norms of democracy, the state, or established institutions to validate their authority.

Quite the opposite: many Americans seem to see the institutional status quo, with all its flaws, more as a restraint than a channel for the popular will. Ironically, as we explored in last week’s editorial, there is a kernel of truth in the sense that something feels off with U.S. democracy. Yet the implications drawn from this instinct are troubling. In July, Trump said at a rally that if people vote for him in November, “in four years, you don’t have to vote again. We’ll have it fixed so good, you’re not gonna have to vote.” If elected, Trump will certainly try to fix “it.” The messiah promising the end of democracy.

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