The Future of the European Green Deal

During the European Parliament (EP) elections in June 2024, the European Green Deal (EGD) was put on the defensive. The mood that prevailed in the run-up to the 2019 elections has changed. At that time, the outcome of the elections was understood and taken up as a plea by EU citizens in favour of a more ambitious climate and environmental policy. As of late, other legitimate political concerns, such as migration, security, and economic stability, have taken centre stage. What has not changed, though, is the climate situation. There is still a risk of exceeding the scientifically determined planetary boundaries, which have become increasingly politically relevant, not least due to the legally binding 1.5 to 2 degree target enshrined in the international Paris Agreement.  There is also a risk of exceeding these limits with regard to the loss of biodiversity as well as the pollution and destruction of forests and oceans.

The planetary boundaries framework aims to prevent irreversible tipping points and ensure a “safe operating space” for humanity by stabilizing the earth system. Addressing security concerns, in this case ecological security, is a critical state responsibility that requires  cooperation with the EU. In this context, the EGD plays a crucial role in operationalizing the “structural coupling” of politics, science and law.

Legal framework

The EGD, while a political initiative, implements international requirements arising from the Paris Agreement on climate change and the Kunming-Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework concerning planetary boundaries. Under EU law, it implements the EU’s obligation under Article 11 of the Treaty on the Functioning of the EU (TFEU), according to which environmental protection requirements must be integrated into the definition and implementation of all Union policies and measures. Through this so-called integration clause, the EU has a quasi-constitutional obligation to integrate environmental concerns into all its policies and to organise them in an environmentally sound manner. In concrete terms, this must be achieved through an effective, long-term and coherent protection concept in the form of a guiding law, the implementation of which must be ensured through monitoring as part of individual measures.

This legal framework gives the political protection concept of the EGD its innovative and effective power. It reviews EU legislation comprehensively for compliance with the objectives of environmental and climate protection. In total, more than 50 regulations and directives have been issued in the course of the individual legislative concretisation of the EGD. In addition to general objectives, the EGD contains measures that primarily serve to protect the climate or biodiversity. In terms of sectors, the EGD focuses primarily on critical sectors like energy, industry, transport and agriculture.

Climate protection through cross-sectoral guiding law

The core of the EGD is the European Climate Law of June 2021, which prescribes the reduction of net greenhouse gas emissions to zero by 2050 as a legally binding target for the EU and its member states. Similar to the German Climate Change Act, the European Climate Law fulfils the function of a constitutionally required guiding law that defines the European climate targets of the EU and ensures compliance through a monitoring process. As an interim goal, it commits the EU and its member states to a 55 per cent reduction in net greenhouse gas emissions by 2030.

To adapt EU legislation to this interim target, the Commission introduced the “Fit for 55” package. In addition to new measures in the energy, building and transport sectors, the package raises emission reduction targets for energy-intensive industries, power generation, and aviation under the EU Emissions Trading System (EU ETS), now expanded to include shipping emissions. A new, separate emissions trading system will be established for the building and road transport sectors. Revenue from this system will fund a social climate fund to mitigate fuel price increases for financially weaker households, small businesses, and road users. With a view to the global competitiveness of European companies, the introduction of a Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) should be emphasised. Its intention is to prevent the EU’s new climate protection measures from causing the relocation of CO2-intensive production to countries outside the EU.

Concretisation through a mix of instruments

Guided by scientific advice, the “Fit for 55” package uses an evidence-based mix of market-based instruments and regulatory measures.  In the area of transport and buildings the EU is relying on the economic instrument of emissions trading. At the same time, in the interest of planning security for both industry and consumers, new fleet limits have been adopted for the transport sector. By 2035, a 100% emissions reduction target—commonly referred to as a “combustion engine ban”—will be enforced,   along with specific national targets for alternative fuel infrastructure. Initiatives like “ReFuelEU Aviation” and “FuelEU Maritime” aim to increase t sustainable fuel use  in aviation and shipping.

In the energy sector, the “Fit for 55” package has, above all, led to the revision of both the directive on the promotion of energy from renewable sources and the Energy Efficiency Directive. Nevertheless, accelerating emission reductions in the energy sector remains necessary to achieve the Paris climate targets. However, a proposal submitted by the Commission as part of the EGD to harmonise energy taxation in the EU – aimed at enhancing alignment with European environmental and climate policy – was blocked by persistent resistance from member state governments in the Council.

In the industrial sector, the New Action Plan for the Circular Economy presented in 2020 is particularly noteworthy. It comprises various individual measures to reduce the consumption of primary materials and improve product life cycles. The newly adopted Ecodesign Regulation mandates sustainability standards for end products on durability, recyclability, and resource efficiency, and aims to improve the availability of information on product sustainability. In other areas, a similar objective is pursued by a new regulation on sustainable packaging and sustainable batteries.

In the agricultural sector, the EGD is primarily characterised by the “Farm to Fork” strategy presented in 2020. In this respect, there is an overlap with the EU’s Biodiversity Strategy. In implementing the Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework under international law, these strategies focus on protecting soil, water, and air, and restoring marine ecosystems and forests. A key element of the Biodiversity Strategy, ´Nature Restoration Law, was weakened after farmers’ protests but was narrowly approved by the EU Council in June 2024.

The future of the EGD for the period 2024-2029

With the EGD, the Commission has successfully presented a concept for improving climate, biodiversity, and environmental protection in line with Art. 11 TFEU. Most measures proposed by the Commission since 2019 have been adopted by the European Parliament (EP) and Council. However, the focus now shifts to implementation and application, where member states bear primary responsibility. “Law in the books” must become “law in action”. The Commission, together with the Court of Justice of the EU as “guardian of the law”, oversees compliance, drawing on the support of national courts and citizens since the early 1960s.

However, despite these efforts, the EU continues to miss its own, more stringent climate policy targets. The fierce and still lingering disputes over the tightening of fleet limits and the so-called “ban on combustion engines” show how difficult it can be politically to implement the legally required, long-term protection concept of the EGD. Similar difficulties arise in agriculture and biodiversity protection. Against this background, the introduction of sustainability officers in the Commission’s Directorates-General and the reorganisation of the consultative European Economic and Social Committee into a European Sustainability Council could ensure better monitoring of the EGD at the European level.

Additionally, it could be helpful if the EU were to organise its mix of instruments more flexibly in line with the principles of subsidiarity and proportionality. More economic instruments like a harmonized and continuously increasing EU-wide CO2 tax could be employed, as long as transparent communication and adherence to price signals are ensured. However, this also means that these measures should be upheld even in the face of resistance, and not, for example, reversed out of concern for “yellow vest” protests or undermined – as in the case of the so-called German fuel rebate. Insofar, it is about credibility and planning security.

This goal can also be served by regulatory law. However, to prevent it from impeding innovation, regulation must be “smart”. Between the extremes of mutual recognition based on the country of origin principle on the one hand and strict harmonisation through standard-setting on the other, various forms of legislation can be used. For example, European legislation could either allow the national level to consider alternative, less burdensome solutions or focus on outcomes rather than detailed prescriptions.  Additionally, a right of appeal could allow national authorities to request exemptions from specific regulations.  In this context, “benchmarking” and “best practice” could facilitate the identification of effective regulatory approaches within  member states, which could then be adopted as European standards. Finally, European legal acts that concern complex and still uncertain issues might include “sunset clauses”, which allow for a new regulatory approach, but require its review and confirmation after a certain period of time.

As a result, the EGD should be understood more as a “living instrument”, evolving through ongoing adaptation and refinement. At the same time, the EGD remains indispensable as a political protection framework due to its integration with scientific findings on planetary boundaries and legal obligations, specifically those under international law and Art. 11 TFEU. In this respect, the structural coupling of science, law and politics defines the non-negotiable goal of transforming the EU into a sustainable, competitive, and climate-neutral social and ecological market economy by 2050.

This text is a slightly shortened translation of a text originally published in German.