01 August 2024
Unprecedented Fraud and New Momentum
Venezuela is entering a new, dangerous phase of its conflict. Though not fully verified, the opposition appears to have won the July 28 election by a landslide. Nicolás Maduro's government has likely committed unprecedented fraud, tampering with votes and withholding tallies. Massive protests have erupted nationwide, with the government rapidly increasing repression and surveillance. This challenges prospects for a democratic transition, requiring a skilled national and international response. Continue reading >>
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13 June 2024
Voting for the Government-in-Exile
So far, democracy in Belarus has struggled to establish itself within the country. After the protest movement in 2020, Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya went into exile where she and her supporters have been trying to penetrate the firm autocratic regime of Alexander Lukashenka. On June 8, the results of the elections for the Coordination Council – an exiled substitute assembly for the in situ Belarusian Parliament were announced. Less than 7,000 people participated in the vote. Despite the considerable efforts to mobilise the voters for the Coordination Council, the exiled opposition has failed to secure any meaningful turnout and thus its much-needed further democratic legitimacy. Continue reading >>07 June 2024
Hitting the Pause Button on the EU Project?
What is at stake in these elections. Continue reading >>
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28 November 2023
Machado vs. the Goliath Chavista
On October 27, María Corina Machado, was declared the winner of the presidential primary elections organized by the National Commission, a civil society association. With more than 92% of the votes, she has become the new face of the Venezuelan opposition. Despite having popular support, her ability to run for the presidency in 2024 is in doubt. Since June 2023, the political ban she was once subject to in 2015 has been extended for fifteen years, which the Venezuelan Supreme Tribunal of Justice (STJ) confirmed on October 30 following an electoral administrative appeal by the pro-government parliamentarian Brito Rodríguez. This blog details why Machado’s disqualification violates Venezuela’s constitution and should be seen as Maduro’s latest attempt to obstruct the holding of free and fair elections in 2024. Continue reading >>
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13 November 2023
A Second Term for “the World’s coolest Dictator”?
On October 26, Nayib Bukele, current President of the Republic of El Salvador, officially registered his candidacy for the presidency. This is in clear violation of El Salvador’s Constitution which prohibits the renewed, consecutive candidacy of a sitting president. In the "Western" media, Bukele has mostly made the news for establishing "mega-prisons" and conducting mass arrests under his watch. In this blogpost, I highlight the political moves that Bukele has made to legitimize his rule and methods, including his repeated extension of El Salvador’s state of emergency and his capture of the Constitutional Chamber. Together with his renewed candidacy, his rule has destroyed El Salvador’s adherence to its own constitutional framework. Continue reading >>
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26 October 2023
To Hell, on a White Horse
Slovakia voted on the final day of September 2023. The electoral rhetoric, results and subsequent coalition-building give grounds to expect illiberal constitutional changes. More attention is needed towards the Constitutional Court’s capacity to resist such illiberalization, as Slovakia may join Hungary in a revamped illiberal Visegrad alliance. Continue reading >>
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27 September 2023
Wartime Elections as Democratic Backsliding
The topic of the next elections to the Verkhovna Rada (Parliament) of Ukraine unexpectedly surfaced in public discourse towards the end of spring this year. Julia Kyrychenko and Olha Ivasiuk’s recent article on Verfassungsblog outlines major legal and practical obstacles to holding wartime elections in Ukraine. In their illuminating analysis, the authors make a strong case against wartime elections, a viewpoint largely shared by civil society. My argument is a bit different. I will argue that (1) wartime parliamentary elections are expressis verbis inconsistent with the Ukrainian Constitution, and (2) wartime elections would undermine the legitimacy of democratic institutions and potentially lead to democratic backsliding. Continue reading >>
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25 September 2023
No Voting Under Fire
Can Ukraine hold elections while it is in the midst of a full-scale invasion by Russia? This question has recently received international attention, including comments from US Senator Lindsey Graham advocating for elections during the war. However, holding elections during the current state of war faces not only factual but also legal obstacles. Genuine democratic elections cannot be conducted under fire from Russian troops. Continue reading >>
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20 September 2023
Poland’s Elections: Free, perhaps, but not Fair
Poland’s upcoming parliamentary elections will be the country’s most important vote since the historic elections of 1989. Indeed, the momentous character of the elections might be the only thing upon which the governing PiS (Law and Justice) party and the opposition might agree. If the elections in October were fair, PiS’ defeat might be plausible though by no means certain. Yet, the preceding sentence identifies a condition we already know will not occur. In this analysis, I map the multiple ways in which the system has been rigged in favour of the incumbents. While I will only describe the most striking aspects of this unfairness, they all form parts of a system and thus should not be looked at in isolation. Kaczyński is a shrewd politician. There’s a method to his (apparent) madness. For the opposition to win is thus a Herculean task. Herculeses do appear in politics – but not that often. Continue reading >>
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01 September 2023